Cyren ( Nasdaq - CYRN ) -- Cloud Security

Cyren (CYRN $2.25) is a niche provider of Internet security products and services.  The company supplies a range of systems that larger companies include in their broader offerings.  Email security has been Cyren's main specialty over the years.  The company also sells anti-malware and URL filtering applications.  Most customers are OEMs that make security products, and Internet service providers.  Third party distributors generate most of the business.  That network spans more than 190 countries, although the U.S. and Europe are the primary targets.  Demand for Cyren's core products has remained steady in recent years.  They continue to yield attractive profit margins.

A new cloud based security offering promises to reignite growth.  The company's legacy systems typically are loaded into hardware devices that examine traffic at key network junctures.  The new approach diverts all communications to a server farm on the cloud.  Cyren rents a piece of the facility, allowing it to efficiently inspect every data packet that gets transmitted to and from its customers.  Cyber threats are dynamic.  New challenges emerge all the time.  By channeling email and other data communications through a central checkpoint, Cyren can update its technology more quickly and comprehensively.  Sending those updates to devices scattered around the world naturally takes longer.  Many customers insist on doing the uploads themselves, moreover, which causes further delays.  People have other things to do.

Cloud based security includes its own artificial intelligence.  The technology identifies suspicious new elements and learns how to handle them.  Cyren maintains a large group of experienced professionals, as well.  That human knowledge usually helps the machine adapt more quickly.  By having all the traffic go through a central location statistically significant conclusions can be achieved more rapidly than is possible with the older distributed strategy.  Cyber criminals still can succeed with new tricks initially.  But the combination of machine intelligence, human experience, and central control put the clamps on much more quickly, keeping the damage to a minimum.

Cyren focuses on small and mid-sized organizations.  Large enterprises tend to rely more on broad based security providers, consultants, and internal experts.  The company's legacy systems mainly protect on-premises communications.  The new cloud offering covers them along with remote devices like cell phones and laptops.  Every piece of data communication is checked in the cloud.  Most competitors haven't switched to the cloud yet.  Proofpoint ("PFPT") is the leader among those that have.  The major security vendors still load special software on devices that leave the building, and guard key transmission points with custom hardware to protect on-site communications.  Pricing is aggressive.  Depending on the number of bells and whistles each employee generates $10-$20 in revenue per year, net to Cyren.  The distributors the company sells through charge a mark-up on that.

Sales failed to take off in 2014 after the cloud version was introduced.  Cyren attributes that mainly to its own marketing errors.  Distributors weren't trained sufficiently.  Marketing materials were inadequate.  And there were technical problems when the software was deployed.  Security software needs to be invisible and easy to use.  Initial problems caused distributors to step back so as not to allienate their customers.

The basic technology was sound.  Enhancements continued to be made.  The marketing and implementation issues were resolved.  A new push now is underway.  Cyren has added a small number of direct sales people to focus on key accounts, moreover.  Besides bolstering revenue, those transactions should serve as effective reference accounts for the distributor channel.

Sales to the legacy market remain fairly steady.  Internet service providers in effect run their own private cloud.  They can check for viruses with conventional techniques, because everything runs through their walls.  Several other customers have well established routines, as well, and prefer to keep using what they have.  Most small and mid-size organizations little or no security, though.  Cyren offers a cheap and simple solution.  Volume is likely to expand rapidly over the next several years as the spy-vs-spy battle on the Internet continues to unfold.

Our estimates assume a modest acceleration in 2015.  Substantially faster gains are possible if the technology achieves widespread adoption.  Things happen fast in today's computer industry.  If Cyren catches a wave, exceptional returns are possible.

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SuperCom ( Nasdaq - SPCB ) -- In Control

SuperCom (SPCB $12.00) is a niche provider of digital identity systems.  The company focuses on emerging markets.  Africa is its leading geography.  Other regions include South America, Asia, and the Middle East.  SuperCom sells its systems primarily to government customers.  Applications include drivers licenses, vehicle permits, passports, visas, national multi-ID documents, border control, and a range of narrow programs.  SuperCom also provides traditional paper documents as required.  Digital systems contain biometric data, holograms, ultraviolet patterns, and computer memory that are tied into national databases.  Forgeries are more expensive and complicated to make than for paper documents.  Digital systems also provide improved data reporting.  Demand is rising in Third World countries due to basic modernization trends.  Greater emphasis on security and terrorist threats are reinforcing growth.  At this point Ebola control hasn't become a factor.  If the disease continues to proliferate tracking systems might be implemented for that purpose, as well.

The company acquired a direct competitor last December.  On Track Innovations ("OTIV") decided to sell the unit and deploy those funds in its wireless payment technology.  That line required capital to realize its potential.  SuperCom paid $10 million in cash plus a contingent earn-out for the division, which sells digital identity systems primarily to Third World customers.  The transaction reduced direct competition, expanded technology resources, and beefed up sales and marketing.  Since combining forces SuperCom has signed $55 million of new business so far in 2014.  The company also has been able to bid on far more projects.  The industry remains generally competitive.  Most participants emphasize the developed world, or huge emerging countries like India and Brazil.  Margins tend to be high throughout the industry.  Initial deployments typically generate gross margins of 55%-60%.  Recurring revenue usually equals 20%-30% of the initial build-out cost, and yields gross margins of 70%-75%.  Overhead consists mainly of product development and sales commisssions.

Two additional technologies might amplify growth.  SuperCom is rolling out a digital tracking line aimed at the corrections and health care industries.  The units include superior batteries and longer range than existing bracelets.  Applications include prisoners on release, medical patients at risk of wandering, and health care equipment that moves frequently.  An animal tracking system also is in development.

Mobile payment technology offers additional diversification.  SuperCom's "Pure Money" application works on any kind of cell phone, not just the most advanced versions like the ones required by Apple Pay.  The target market will be unbanked consumers, mainly in Third World countries.  Fees will be earned from participating merchants and governments, in addition to transaction charges.  The technology allows retailers to uses their own phone or tablet computer as a point of sale system, so additional hardware purchases aren't required.  The software alternatively can be loaded onto an existing POS system.

Digital identity contracts probably will account for most 2015 revenue.  We estimate sales will advance 36% next year to $45 million.  The new technologies may contribute $2-$3 million of that.  Earnings (fully taxed) could improve 21% to $.85 a share.  Tax loss carry forwards will shelter 2015  income, supplementing cash flow.  Those savings probably will run out in 2016.  Faster growth is possible if the new lines gain momentum or the digital identity segment wins lots of new business.

SuperCom may pursue another acquisition in the near future.  The company previously authorized the sale of $50 million in stock with a shelf registration.  The target could triple SuperCom's sales, according to the company.  It also would enable the company to penetrate Western electronic identification markets.  SuperCom indicates the target is very profitable and would be immediately accretive to earnings.  It's unknown why the target is being sold, although reports suggest the owners are looking for money.  SuperCom's stock price may move sideways or even decline somewhat until the transaction is formalized, or a decision is made not to pursue it.  Assuming the contemplated transation does not go through sales could attain $75-$100 million in 2-3 years.  Earnings could increase to $1.15-$1.55 a share. SuperCom notes that its 5-year goal is sales of $250 million.

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Highpower International ( Nasdaq - HPJ ) -- Charges Ahead

Highpower International (HPJ $6.25) is a leading manufacturer of plastic lithium ion batteries used in consumer electronic devices.  The basic technology is similar to the batteries made popular by Tesla Motors.  Those are produced by Panasonic.  Unlike Tesla's which are all identical cylinders, Highpower makes batteries in whatever shape and size is required to fit a particular device.  The company has been producing batteries for two decades.  It still relies on nickel cadmium batteries, an older technology, for 40% of sales.  That line has price-performance advantages for numerous applications and is likely to remain viable into the next decade.  But lithium ion is the company's principal source of growth at this point.

Competition is intense.  Low cost producers are springing up in China.  Established Japanese manufacturers already have solid connections in the consumer elections area.  Many now are moving into electric vehicles and solar back-up, as well.  And while the Americans aren't directly involved, they are devising ways to improve the batteries and make them efficient with better software.  But Highpower is remaining ahead of the pack.  The company upgraded its existing facilities in 2012.  A new plant was constructed last year, potentially doubling capacity.  About one third of that was activated this year.  More equipment and personnel will be added as order volume expands.

Highpower already supplies Sony and several other major Japanese consumer electronics producers.  This year it began working with Qualcomm to develop batteries for next generation products like smart watches.  R&D collaborations are underway with American scientists to improve the lithium ion technology, particularly to make it less prone to fire.  Highpower also is moving into the electric vehicle market with batteries aimed at buses.  The Chinese government has made it a priority to reduce air pollution with cleaner public transportation systems.  The company also is working with an American company to develop a line of solar powered back-up energy systems, to replace diesel units.

Consumer electronics will drive the boat in the near term.  Margins have been impacted by the capacity expansion.  Non cash depreciation charges on the entire new facility have overwhelmed the incremental revenue to date.  Sequential improvement is likely to reverse that equation as volume builds during the second half of 2014.  Gross margins promise to widen further in 2015 as depreciation expense remains fixed and revenue continues to climb.

We estimate 2015 earnings will double to $.60 a share.  Sales are poised to advance 22% to $195 a share.  Further margin improvement should accompany rising sales volume in subsequent periods.  Margins also may benefit from Highpower's battery recycling unit.  That operation is losing money presently, having just opened last year.  But a swing to profitability is likely as volume improves.  The facility also enhances sales activity, because customers know they won't have any environmental liability down the road.

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Pure Technologies ( Toronto - PUR ) -- Runs a Tight Ship

Pure Technologies (PUR.to $7.50) is the leading provider of monitoring technologies used by water utilities to identify leaks.  The company makes several devices that travel through pipes of all sizes without getting stuck behind valves or other obstacles.  The systems rely on several methods to pinpoint weak spots in the network.  Utilities apply that information to fix short lengths of pipe, where the problem resides.  Traditional methods applied corrective action after a leak occurred.  Those approaches were less accurate, moreover.  So repair work often spanned miles of pipe, causing much greater expense levels.  Most customers still hire Pure on a one-off basis to assess an entire network and plan how to make to repairs.  A growing number use the company to provide full-time monitoring services, to ensure major problems never arise.

The company completed a significant acquisition in September.  Up until then Pure had conducted similar monitoring services for oil and gas pipelines, on a limited scale.  That unit comprised about 7% of sales.  The acquisition tripled that revenue run rate, expanded the customer base, and provided key technologies and services.  Oil and gas pipeline construction is surging to accommodate the fracking revolution.  Older pipelines are running at capacity, moreover, making preventative maintenance more essential.  Only a small percentage of the leak detection market has been penetrated to date.  The combined unit could grow 25% annually or more well into the decade.

Meantime, demand for water monitoring is accelerating, too.  The threat of droughts is causing utilities to manage their systems more efficiently.  But many are close to 100 years old.  Upgrades certainly have been made over the years.  Still, a lot of systems are aging and require close attention to prevent major breaks.  International business offers additional opportunity.  Many systems are groaning under the weight of expanding populations and modernized economies.  Water use tends to correlate with GDP growth.  To date international revenue has been modest.  But marketing efforts are being ramped up to make a deeper penetration over the coming years.

We estimate 2014 earnings will advance 82% to $.20 a share (Canadian).  Sales tend to be stronger in the second half as utilities implement their annual plans.  That sequential improvement could propel full year sales to $78 million (+28%).  Next year, bolstered by the acquisition, sales could rise 35% to $105 million to support a 50% increase in earnings ($.30 a share).  Pure faces lots of indirect competition in the water area from engineering companies, which specialize in replacing big sections of pipe.  Patents and experience provide a competitive barrier in the company's niche.  Technologies exist to monitor oil and gas pipelines (so-called "pigs").  Pure's work with those and provide an overall improvement in performance and lower cost.

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MAM Software - Driving Performance

MAM Software (MAMS $5.00) is a leading software provider for auto part, auto repair, and tire retailers.  MAM also provides similar products for wholesaler distributors in those industries.  The company is based in England.  It controls approximately 70% of the U.K. and Irish markets, which remain under penetrated.  The technology is easy to implement for small and mid-sized operations that formerly used spreadsheets and generic retail management programs.  MAM Software's products are specifically designed for the automotive industry, providing far superior performance at similar costs.  The company recently completed an acquisition to facilitate entry into the U.S. market.  That move led to a joint venture with a major U.S. company that promises to accelerate gains while reducing risk.  Business in the U.K. is being converted from on-site software to cloud based delivery.  That promises to raise profitability and customer retention over the long haul.  The technology is being emphasized in the U.S., as well.  New international markets are being addressed.  Demand is surging among smaller auto parts, auto repair, and tire retailers because the technology allows them to compete with the Big Boys at an affordable cost.  Competition consists primarily of generic retail software providers that don't have the specific industry knowledge that MAM Software delivers.

MAM's software modernizes auto shop operations.  Counter personnel can see different pricing options right away, alerting customers to promotions, discounts, combination deals, and lower cost alternatives from other vendors.  Cross selling opportunities are highlighted.  Inventory management and re-ordering are streamlined.  A complete accounting system is provided for managerial, financial reporting, and tax purposes.  The software helps improve margins, expand revenue, and enhance customer retention.  E-commerce modules are included to facilitate sales on the Internet.  The technology is a complete package that is structured for auto shop operations, which can be fine tuned pretty easily for individual requirements.  MAM provides a range of data services in addition to the store level software.  The key products are part catalogs that help store personnel identify the exact item required to meet each customer's need.  Every model year has different specifications.  Not every part is compatible.

The company is shifting to a cloud based delivery format.  MAM Software has been operating in the U.K. and Ireland for more than a decade.  Most of those customers run the software on-site, creating a fair amount of complication when updates are released and other changes occur.  Those systems are sold for a single lump sum payment.  The new cloud based system is priced on a recurring month to month basis and is maintained by MAM at a central location.  Updates are automatic and don't require the customers' involvement.  Financial performance has slowed in the current fiscal year (June) due to the transition.  But real business momentum has continued at a fast pace.  Instead of upfront payments the revenue is being spread out into future periods.

A recent joint marketing relationship with a unit of Autozone promises to accelerate performance.  The giant retailer's Alldata subsidiary is the leading U.S. provider of data for auto repair shops, spanning approximately 80,000 locations.  For every repair job Alldata generates a full bill of materials and estimates for how much time each task will take.  Alldata originally planned to develop its own shop management software to complement the data service.  Instead, last January it joined forces with MAM.  Alldata is handling all of the marketing and customer relations.  MAM is managing the software component, which will be delivered in a cloud based manner.  Revenue will be split in an undisclosed manner but MAM indicates its contribution margin will be attractive due to the lack of selling expense.  The initial response among potential customers reportedly has been positive.  Significant leverage could be realized in fiscal 2015 (June) as the program builds steam.

Meantime, sales growth remains vibrant in the company's established markets.  Competition is forcing retailers and wholesalers to consolidate and modernize.  The company's American unit, obtained via acquisition in 2012, is making inroads in the auto part and tire segments.  The U.K. and Irish business is continuing to thrive, as well.  And MAM is making plans to enter additional European markets.  The company also is eyeing new vertical segments like plumbing, building materials, and electrical supplies.

We estimate sales will come in around $31 million in fiscal 2014 (June).  Earnings appear on track to reach $.22 a share.  Next year $36 million and $.35 a share represent realistic targets.  A stronger showing is possible if the Alldata relationship yields significant impetus right away.  Our estimates assume it will take some time for the market to develop.  Financial results will benefit gradually, moreover, since revenue will be recognized on a monthly basis.

The build up of cloud based recurring revenue promises to lift profitability over the long haul.  In 2-3 years sales could reach $45-$55 million to yield income of $.55-$.75 a share.  Applying a P/E multiple of 23x to the midpoint of the range suggests a target price of $15 a share, potential appreciation of 200% from the current quote.  Limits are advised.

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Computer Modelling Group ( Toronto - CMG ) -- The Big Frack Attack

Computer Modelling Group (CMG.to $27.50) is the leading provider of simulation software used to maximize the economic potential of hard to recover oil and gas reserves.  The company dominates the tar sands market in Western Canada.  It also has strong positions in deep offshore and other heavy oil applications.  Most large pools of petroleum and natural have been found by now.  The ones that remain have become difficult to monetize, moreover, because they exist out in the ocean or in arctic locations.   New land-based discoveries increasingly are being made in shale deposits which require a high degree of technical ability to exploit.  Computer Modelling entered that market a few years ago as U.S. drilling activity accelerated.  The number of customers employing its simulators now is expanding at a rapid pace.  Most have been trying out the technology on a limited basis.  Success has encouraged them to purchase additional licenses and apply the technology to a larger percentage of their overall drilling programs.

The core business remains solid.  Computer Modelling added seven shale customers in the December quarter, bringing the total to 37.  But that segment still represents a small portion of the total business.  The tar sands segment flattened out over the past year due to pipeline shortages, which made it more difficult for smaller operators to acquire financing.  That forced output to be moved by railroad, a more expensive option that itself was capacity constrained.  A series of accidents caused the Canadian government to tighten safety rules on rail car shipping, moreover, exerting further pressure on drilling activity in Western Canada.  Despite all that the major producers have kept up production, and most of those companies are heavy users of Computer Modelling's systems.

Expansion in South America and the Middle East is reinforcing growth.  The company has a close affiliation with Petrobas, Brazil's national oil company.  It also has close ties with leading producers in Colombia and Venezuela.  The latter has fallen behind in its payments to Computer Modelling.  Further delay is possible until the political situation there is resolved.  But the long term outlook in Venezuela remains positive.  Activity is rising in other South American nations, as well, with Argentina in particular preparing to start a major shale drilling initiative.  Middle East demand has been improving in recent years because even there new discoveries have become more difficult to exploit.  The company also is making inroads in Asia.  Shale drilling could become a substantial market in that region over the coming decade.

Competition remains scant.  Schlumberger provides simulation software for conventional oil fields but has been unable to keep pace with Computer Modelling in the high end.  Halliburton used to offer its own heavy oil simulators but now typically re-sells the company's.  A Russian start-up announced a competitive offering in 2013 but that product still hasn't been launched commercially.  Computer Modelling spends 20% of revenue on product development.  It also receives funding from Shell and Petrobas to develop a next generation system that simulates above ground facilities along with the underground drilling operations.  An active consulting team helps customers apply the technology.  It also collects feedback to help upgrade the systems cost effectively.

We estimate sales will advance 12% in the current fiscal year (March) to $77 million.  Earnings appear on track to improve 10% to $.76 a share.  Implementation of the Keystone XL pipeline could reignite Canadian activity over the next few years.  More important, demand by U.S. shale producers is likely to gain momentum as greater experience with the technology is obtained.  The customer count could increase to 60 or more in the U.S. alone.  And those customers probably will buy an expanding number of licenses.  International business is poised to rise in response both to greater conventional (heavy oil) drilling, and the adoption of horizontal fracking methods.  The next generation package recently began field testing by Shell and Petrobas.  That line is likely to generate incremental revenue within 1-2 years if all goes well.  In 2-3 years sales could reach $125-$150 million to produce income of $1.25-$1.50 a share.

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Highpower International ( Nasdaq - HPJ ) -- Takes Shape

Highpower International (HPJ $2.65) is a niche manufacturer of lithium-ion and nickel metal hydride batteries. The nickel line accounted for a majority of sales in the past (59% through the first nine months of 2013) but that technology has reached maturity.  Faster gains are being achieved by the higher performance lithium products.  Those are used in laptops, phones, cameras, and a wide range of other portable electronics.  The company is the technology leader in lithium polymer batteries than can be produced in virtually any shape.  Demand is rising as more mobile devices go into service, the devices become smaller, and consumers demand longer up times between recharging.  Highpower recently began supplying lithium batteries to the electric vehicle industry, as well.

Highpower's lithium batteries are distinguished by their flexible form factor.  The company is able to produce high levels of electrical energy while configuring the battery to fit almost any space.  Most competitors provide standard shapes that product designers need to adapt to.  Chinese competitors have recently entered the lithium polymer space.  But they generally are unable to match Highpower's performance level. In spite of the new entrants production capacity within the lithium battery industry has been unable to keep pace with demand.  Highpower is benefiting from that trend.  Existing customers are expanding purchase commitments.  New customers are being added.  And margins are improving as a result of better pricing and longer production runs.

New capacity is coming on line.  A large expansion was completed in 2013.  Depreciation charges will moderate earnings growth over the next few quarters as a result.  But the available capacity combined with Highpower's superior quality is helping the company gain market share.  Margins are poised to improve significantly over the next 2-3 years as the new plant fills up.

The electric vehicle market could yield substantial leverage.  Lithium batteries were considered uncompetitive by most EV producers until Tesla Motors adopted the technology.  While energy output is lower than for more exotic batteries, overall price-performance has proven far superior due to lower cost.  Tesla presently buys all its batteries from Panasonic.  Those are standard cylinders that Tesla packs together underneath the floor of the car's cabin.  Panasonic is expanding its dedicated manufacturing facilities to support Tesla's next car, the Model X high end crossover.  If that car meets its sales targets pressure will intensify on Panasonic despite the current ramp up.  Tesla has a third car in the pipeline, moreover, aimed at the mass market.  If that model connects capacity could become seriously constrained.  If other car makers adopt lithium batteries the problem could be magnified.  Tesla is contemplating construction of an in house battery manufacturing facility to help meet demand.  It's existing business already is being limited by battery shortages and it wants to avoid further limitations in the future.  Highpower could wind up selling significant quantities into the EV industry as the number of cars sold takes off.  Conceivably, it also might consult or partner with Tesla on its internal project if the car maker diversifies away from its complete dependence on Panasonic.

Meantime, consumer electronics demand promises to accelerate growth.  We estimate 2014 sales will advance 23% to $160 million to provide income of $.40 a share (+471%).  Margins are poised to widen in 2015 and beyond, enabling earnings to keep climbing faster than sales.  In 2-3 years sales could reach $200-$250 million to provide earnings of $.75-$1.00 a share.  Those figures assume the sale of 4 million and 7 million shares, respectively, to reduce debt and finance expansion.

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Pure Technologies ( Toronto - PUR ) -- Water Tight

Pure Technologies (PUR.to $7.00) is the leading provider of inspection and monitoring services for water utilities to identify and repair leaks in a cost efficient manner.  Traditional methods are imprecise and often require large sections of pipe to be replaced.  Pure's systems zero in on problem areas, allowing remediation to be performed more inexpensively.  To date the company has focused largely on large diameter pipelines made from prestressed concrete.  Those are steel cylinders wrapped in heavy wire, and then coated with concrete both on the interior and exterior.  Problems occur when the wires begin snapping.  Pure supplies a variety of acoustic technologies that identify where those breaks are occurring, allowing repairs to be made at that specific location.  Prestressed concrete trunk lines (water delivery and waste water) account for approximately 3% of the installed base of water pipes.

Last fall Pure expanded its addressable market 20x by introducing technologies aimed at metallic pipes.  The same basic approach was applied to the problem.  Several types of instruments with fiber optic communication lines or radio transmitters monitor the pipes, creating a data baseline.  When anomalies are picked up more testing is sent to the area to clarify the problem.  Metal pipes have different characteristics.  They also are more complicated than the large trunk pipelines, requiring listening devices that are more maneuverable and less likely to get stuck.  The pipe's diameters are smaller, there are more twists and turns, and numerous valves and other obstacles stick out along the way.  Orders already have responded to the new metallic pipe technologies.  Existing customers are expanding adoption.  New customers are signing up.

Recurring revenues now account for a majority of Pure's business.  Sales of equipment represents approximately 33% of sales.  Those are the listening devices that water utilities employ to watch their systems.  Most of the rest is generated by consulting, inspection, and monitoring services.  Service income has been advancing sharply in North America.  A contract with the Libyan government has masked that improvement, though.  The company had a substantial contract in Libya prior to Colonel Gaddafi's overthrow.  That relationship stopped in its tracks after the revolution, mainly due to a lack of funds.  The project -- bringing water from a desert oasis to the cities -- remains operational, albeit at inefficient levels.  The company collected a large receivable in 2012, throwing off year to year comparisons.  New business remains at a standstill, though.  Pure is optimistic a revival will occur some day in the future.

Meantime, demand is accelerating.  In addition to water Pure generates about 5% of revenue from oil and natural gas pipelines.  That figure likely doubled in 2013 and could expand further in the year ahead.  Several new customers recently were added in the North American water utility market, moreover.  Competition is provided mainly by large engineering contractors which typically replace large sections of pipe when problems are discovered.  Pure's systems offer a more affordable alternative.  Cash strapped agencies are becoming increasing receptive to the company's targeted approach.  Expansion into the metallic pipe area is providing additional leverage.  Technical employees are being added at a fast pace to support the build up in demand.  New products are slated for introduction this summer.  Details have not be revealed.  But important new features are likely to be added to existing hardware platforms, allowing customers to upgrade without disruption.

International markets are coming to life.  Pure has started working with several Far East utilities.  A new software platform has been developed to facilitate that effort, helping the company coordinate its consulting efforts more efficiently.  Pure also is beginning to pursue smaller North American utilities.  The same software platform ("PureNet") is expected to provide lower cost design and monitoring services to those users, as well.

December period results likely were solid.  Performance tends to decline sequentially because water demand is high in the period.  Maintenance efforts often are pushed back unless essential.  For the year we estimate income rose 20% to $.12 a share, despite the Libya setback.  Sales likely increased 8% to $63 million.

In 2014 the Libya distortion will be eliminated.  We estimate earnings will improve 67%-100% to $.20-$.24 a share.  Sales could reach $80-$85 million, up 27%-35%.  Further margin expansion is possible in subsequent years as recurring revenues accumulate and sales in general are spread over a less rapidly rising base of overhead costs.  Acquisitions of complementary technologies could yield additional leverage.  The initiation of a cash dividend is possible.

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Silicom ( Nasdaq - SILC ) -- Big Data Yields Big Growth

Silicom (SILC $60.00) reported better than expected Q4 results.  The company is the leading provider of auxiliary products used in server farms to improve performance and reduce costs.  Volume responded in the period as several programs achieved broader distribution.  Sales advanced 52% to $25.4 million.  Earnings jumped 104% to $.94 a share.  Overhead costs were spread over a higher than predicted level of sales, propelling pretax margins to 28% in the quarter.  The trend towards cloud computing amplified demand.  Customers rely on Silicom's technologies to offload routine tasks onto special purpose cards, enabling their servers to accommodate more traffic.  A recent acquisition promises to reinforce that trend in upcoming periods.  That technology (data virtualization) helps cloud computing data centers manage huge information repositories more efficiently.  Meantime, Silicom's core technologies are continuing to proliferate into more systems.

Silicom is co-opting its only true competitor, Intel Corp.  The giant chip maker used to provide some of the technologies that Silicom offers as a bundled feature in certain semiconductor products.  In December Intel signed a deal with Silicom to work together on a series of new offerings.  Further collaboration is possible down the road if Intel elects to rely on Silicom's industry standard products instead of reinventing the wheel themselves.  The only other direct competition that Silicom currently encounters is from in-house design teams.  Many manufacturers of specialty computers still attempt to design 100% of the functionality of their products internally.  Silicom increasingly is replacing those efforts when new products are developed.

Several factors promise to sustain growth at a superior rate.  The industry itself is continuing to expand.  Big data, mobile, and cloud computing are expanding much more quickly than the computer industry as a whole.  Silicom already is well entrenched in those segments.  The data virtualization expansion is likely to reinforce that momentum.  Unit volume in existing programs should benefit directly.  Silicom also is adding new customers.  Over 90 companies currently rely on the company's technologies to some degree.  And those customers are engineering Silicom's technologies into a greater number of new designs.

We estimate 2014 sales will surge 25%-35% to $90-$100 million.  Income, excluding the affect of non-cash stock option expense, could reach $2.75-$3.25 a share.  Cash flow remains positive.  Silicom has expanded inventory levels to ensure the best possible response time when customers place orders.  Even so, a hike in the cash dividend is possible.  There's plenty of cash on hand, moreover, to purchase additional technologies.

Note - Older reports about Silicom can be found in the "Archives" in the "Israeli Growth Stock" section, which appears at the end.  Those companies now are followed in this blog, "International Growth Stocks."

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Coastal Contacts ( Nasdaq - COA ) -- Loses Focus

Coastal Contacts (COA $4.75) reported Q2 (April) results that were significantly below our expectation.  The company is a leading provider of contact lenses and eyeglasses, sold over the Internet.  Contact lenses account for 2/3 of revenues, but the greatest growth potential lies in the virtually untapped eyeglass segment.  Contact lens sales slowed modestly from the immediately preceeding quarter.  But that was a normal fluctuation influenced by re-order timing.  The overall trend remains intact.  Eyeglass sales, on the other hand, were much slower than anticipated.  Pricing increased, an indication that promotional discounts were relied upon to a lesser extent.  Even with that adjustment volume should have been considerably higher.  Coastal Contacts raised $20 million in fresh equity earlier in the year.  About 25% of that was spent in the April quarter to accelerate growth.  It could be the extra spending will produce higher results in the current quarter.  Demand is likely to be reinforced by a wider selection of brand name frames and sunglasses, and a more streamlined website.  Coastal Contacts elected not to provide a sales forecast, though, so there remains considerable doubt about what the immediate future will bring. 

The long term outlook remains positive.  The on-line eyeglass category holds enormous potential.  Even if only 10% of the eyeglass market goes to the Internet that business will equal the on-line contact lens industry.  Coastal Contacts faces competition at the high and low ends.  But the company remains the leader in the mid-range segment.  Downside risk is limited by the company's acquisition potential.

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3-S Bio - Acquisition of the Company is Complete

Computer Modelling Group ( Toronto - CMG ) --

Computer Modelling Group (CMG.to $23.00) reported excellent on target Q4 (March) results.  The company is the leading provider of simulation software used by energy companies to maximize production of heavy oil, tar sands, and other complex reserves.  Customers purchase the technology either on a perpetual basis or year to year.  Perpetual licenses generate more immediate revenue.  Deals that renew annually tend to yield greater lifetime income.  In the latest quarter Computer Modelling booked fewer than normal perpetual deals, resulting in a muted year over year comparison.  But recurring revenue improved by 23%.  Earnings increased by a penny to $.20 a share despite the 33% decline in perpetual license sales.

Demand remains vibrant.  Computer Modelling continues to fare best in the North American market.  Activity in Calgary and North Dakota is continuing to expand at a superior pace.  The U.S. oil fracking market is thriving as costs come down, helped in growing measure by broader software use.  Tar sand costs are falling, as well.  Each of those areas is believed to possess potential reserves that are bigger than Saudi Arabia's.  A price collapse in the oil market remains a significant risk.  In theory worldwide demand for petroleum should be exploding as Third World countries modernize their transportation systems.  The ongoing recession has muted demand, though.  And most OPEC producers depend on their oil income, making it unlikely they'll cut production.  Prices have held up so far because the Obama Administration has virtually eliminated Iran from the picture.  The U.S. and Canada have picked up the mullahs' market share.  Further output increases could start putting pressure on prices, though, unless economic activity rebounds.  Fracking and tar sand costs are declining, so a bigger cushion is being created.  But a big acceleration in sales probably won't emerge until unit volume demand accelerates, forcing energy producers to develop even more challenging fields. 

Natural demand promises to advance in the Middle East.  That's been Schlumberger's province for decades.  And the French oilfield services giant probably will continue to supply a sizable share of the software market over the long haul due to its tight customer relationships.  But even in the Middle East oil has become increasingly difficult to recover.  Computer Modelling has the best technology for exploiting difficult reserves.  The company already is working with Halliburton in North America.  If worldwide demand takes off Computer Modelling could make some direct forays in the Middle East as those kingdoms try to rebuild their own reserve bases.  A collaboration with Schlumberger, while it's unlikely at this point, could develop.

The company's next generation system is slated for launch in the December quarter.  That project was funded equally by Shell and Petrobas, which also supplied part of the engineering team.  Computer Modelling retains exclusive ownership and marketing rights to the technology.  Shell and Petrobas get first shot at using the software.  It should be a pretty big deal.

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Coastal Contacts ( Nasdaq - COA ) -- Deploys New Capital

Coastal Contacts (COA $5.75) appears on track to produce good Q2 (April) results.  Of greater importance, the company raised $18 million in fresh capital during the period.  Three million shares were sold at $6.00 apiece.  That money is being gradually deployed to support the company's penetration of the U.S. on-line eyeglass market.  The template for that business in Canada remains strong.  That operation has been in place for the past few years.  Selling eyeglasses on-line is challenge because new customers are wary of the process.  Once they do place orders, however, the far superior pricing drives repeat business and referrals.  Returning customers are accounting for an increasing share of Canadian orders, generating better margins.  At present the company is focusing on first time buyers in the United States.  As that base starts re-ordering margins promise to surge there, as well.

Large deals with health care insurance companies could amplify growth.  Coastal Contacts provides eyeglasses at approximately 50% lower cost than conventional retailers.  That's opening up opportunities among managed care providers that want to provide eye car insurance at low costs. 

The company's contact lens business continues to grow at a 5%-10% rate.  That segment had been starved for advertising funds before the recent stock offering.  Business in Northern Europe and Canada had held up well despite that lack of marketing effort.  Renewed spending promises to reinforce the company's competitive position in upcoming quarters.

In 4-5 years pretax margins could reach 20%-25%.  We project they will attain half that level by 2014-2015 as marketing costs continue to rise quickly, laying the groundwork for further sales improvements.  In 2-3 years sales could reach $325 million to provide fully taxed earnings of $.75 a share.  In 4-5 years income could hit $2.00 a share.

 

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3-S Bio ( Nasdaq - SSRX ) -- Buyout Price Increased to $16.70 a Share

3-S Bio (SSRX $16.20) said the buyout group attempting to purchase the company raised its offer from $15.40 a share to $16.70 a share.  No explanation for the 8% improvement was given.  A shareholder meeting is scheduled this month to vote on the proposal.  The price remains modest in relation to 3-S Bio's long term potential.  The company enjoys leading market shares with two fast growing drugs.  Additional products are in development.  The Chinese medical industry is poised to expand dramatically over the next decade.  And 3-S Bio has a joint venture in place with U.S. based Davita that could yield substantial benefits.  The private equity fund orchestrating the acquisition is connected with the Chinese government, though.  And the company's C.E.O. is part of the buyout group.  So alternative offers are unlikely.

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Coastal Contacts ( Toronto - COA ) -- Expands to the United States

Coastal Contacts (COA.to $5.85) is a leading Internet provider of contact lenses to consumers in Canada and Northern Europe.  Over the past few years the company has developed a second product line for eyeglasses.  That segment now accounts for approximately 25% of sales.  Eyeglasses normally are sold at extremely high prices in relation to cost at retail stores and optometrist offices.  Coastal Contacts has created its own manufacturing facilities which, combined with an online distribution network, facilitates pricing that's 40%-60% below conventional levels for identical brands and models.  Customer acquisition is more challenging than contacts because the concept is new and customers are uncertain how well the glasses will fit and look.  So Coastal Contacts has had to resort to promotional offers to get customers in the door.  In Canada and Europe, where the company has operated for the most part to date, repeat business has been excellent, though.  And most users refer additional customers, indicating high levels of satisfaction.  The core contact lens business is relatively mature and provides a positive cash flow.  Earnings have declined in recent years as that money and more has been invested in developing the eyeglass segment.  Profits in Canada and Europe are starting to emerge as repeat orders comprise a rising share of the business.  Those sales yield attractive gross margins due to Coastal Contacts' vertical integration and efficient web-based marketing platform.  During the past year efforts were stepped up to penetrate the U.S. eyeglass market.  Sales already are advancing at greater than 100% a year.  Even faster gains are possible as advertising expands, renewals kick in, and referrals contribute further -- replicating the success model in Canada and Europe.

A recent stock offering reinforced finances.  Coastal Contacts sold 3.0 million shares at $6.00 a share, raising $17 million after expenses.  Those funds will be earmarked mainly to support expansion in the U.S. eyeglass market.  Facilities were improved last year, doubling capacity.  Most Internet competitors outsource production to Asia, lengthening turnaround times.  Coast Contacts typically delivers within a few days.  Quality control is superior, as well, since any errors can be corrected immediately and at low cost.  Coastal Contacts shipped 987,452 sets of glasses in the fiscal year ended October, 2012, up 272% from two years before.  A high percentage were low margin promotional deals, designed to get new users to sign up.  Even so, overall gross margins improved to 43% from 39% due to the superior profitability the eyeglass business provides.  As normally priced glasses (still 40%-60% below regular retail) comprise a larger share of total sales both revenue and margins promise to widen materially.

We estimate financial performance will remain muted in fiscal 2013 (Oct.) due to the promotional effort to penetrate the U.S. eyeglass market.  Sales advanced 17% in the January period to $54.9 million.  But selling and marketing costs jumped 45%, leading to a loss of $.11 a share.  Eyeglass sales rose 35% to $13.9 million.  Eyeglass units increased 42% to 277,159.  Eyeglass gross margins improved to 46% despite high levels of discounted pricing.  U.S. eyeglass sales jumped 95% and now represent about 50% of the company's total eyeglass volume.

The eyeglass market is approximately 9x larger than the contact lens segment.  Only a small fraction has shifted to the Internet to date.  But the pricing advantage could precipitate a wholesale change, similar to what happened in the contact segment.  The retail sector is bound to fight back.  Unless it completely restructures, though, Coastal Contacts should remain the low cost provider by a wide margin.  The company's strongest Internet competitors provide their own proprietary designs, which generally are upscale and attract a younger hip demographic.  Coastal Contacts goes for that market, as well, with brand name designers.  But the largest portion of its business is generated by cost conscious consumers, often families buying multiple pairs for children.  Weak economic conditions promote demand from a broad range of buyers, as well.

Margins promise to widen as volume builds.  As advertising and promotion level off in absolute terms the company's high gross margins should yield substantial operating income leverage.  Over the long haul (4-5 years) pretax margins could rise into the 20% vicinity.  We estimate profitability will expand about half that far within 2-3 years.  Sales could reach $300-$325 million to provide fully taxed earnings of $.50-$.70 a share. Applying a P/E multiple of 30x to the midpoint of the range (reflecting the company's further margin potential) suggests a target price of $18 a share, potential appreciation of 200% from the current quote.  Limits are advised when placing orders.  The shares also trade on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol "COA."

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L&L Energy ( Nasdaq - LLEN ) -- Pursues Dual Listing In Taiwan

L&L Energy (LLEN $2.25) appears on track to produce excellent on target Q4 (April) results.  Performance surged in the January period.  Further gains are likely as new mines and capacity improvements at existing locations generate larger contributions.  We estimate income for the entire fiscal year will finish in the $.90-$.95 a share range.  Excluding acquisitions, which are likely and could be substantial, income of $1.25 a share represents a realistic target for next year.

A listing on the Taiwan stock exchange is likely in the near future.  L&L Energy currently trades exclusively in the United States.  While the company is based in America all of its operations take place in China.  Most Chinese stocks trade at a discount on U.S. markets due to past irregularities at some companies.  Slower growth in China has caused investors additional concern.  Valuations tend to be significantly higher in Taiwan.  L&L Energy is hopeful that a listing there will lift its P/E multiple so it can take advantage of a government mandated consolidation in the Chinese coal industry.  The company previously made some non-accretive acquisitions which increased its size sufficiently to put it in the "safe harbor" category, meaning the government can't force it to merge at the deadline (December 31, 2013).  In fact, L&L Energy is in position to make acquisitions at attractive prices, if it can raise the capital to do so.  Stock deals at 2x-3x earnings promise to be earnings neutral.  If the company can achieve a higher valuation larger transactions might become possible.  Plus any deals will add to income right away.

Business remains strong in the meantime.  Coal prices are steady in China.  Industrial expansion has slowed in relation to historic rates but remains high compared to the U.S. and Europe.  Imports provide some competition but their impact is limited by distribution bottlenecks from the ports they unload at.  China is starting to develop a natural gas fracking industry.  That output is likely to replace petroleum more than coal, however, at least for the next 5-10 years.  Pollution from coal remains an issue.  The current focus is on reducing smog rather than co-2 emissions.

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3-S Bio ( Nasdaq - SSRX ) -- Hikes Expenses

3-S Bio (SSRX $14.90) reported better than expected Q4 revenues.  Despite price reductions mandated by the Chinese central government volume advanced 18% to $26.3 million.  Higher sales and marketing costs enabled the company to penetrate less populated areas.  They also blunted competitive inroads.  Market share for 3-S Bio's leading drugs was preserved in the 40% range.  Product development costs accelerated, as well.  The company signed a partnership with U.S. based Davita last year to establish a chain of dialysis centers in China.  3-S Bio will supply a large component of the drugs to that venture.  Development costs jumped to get those formulations approved and into production.  Earnings declined 33% due to the elevated spending, coming in at $.12 a share.

The acquisition of the company remains on track.  An offer was announced last September.  The purchasing group included 3-S Bio's chief executive, a large bank controlled by communist party members, and a hedge fund also run by communists.  In February an agreement was reached to purchase all the outstanding stock at $15.40 a share.  3-S Bio's shareholders must approve the transaction by a 2/3 margin.  A vote is expected in the second quarter.

The uptick in spending suggests the deal is likely to go through.  The Davita venture holds good potential in its present form.  That encompasses a small part of the total Chinese market.  The addition of state controlled entities could open up additional territories, generating a bid payday for the private equity group.  3-S Bio has plenty of cash on hand to fund operations.  So any new capital won't be sidetracked from the huge opportunity the Davita partnership affords.  Investments in other initiatives could be made through the private structure, as well.

The shares are trading close to the ultimate buyout price.  An upward revision to the price appears unlikely.  Aggressive holders are advised to close out positions and put the money to work in another Special Situation.

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L&L Energy ( Nasdaq - LLEN ) -- Breaks Out

L&L Energy (LLEN $2.10) reported excellent better than expected Q3 (Jan.) results.  The company is an American managed coal producer that operates in China's interior.  Regulatory crackdowns on the entire industry, to promote worker safety, impacted performance in 2011 and 2012.  Output declined while the government inspected all the mines in the region.  L&L Energy received passing grades.  But the interruption caused earnings to decline.  During that stretch the company swapped a variety of properties, trading proven commodities for high potential mines that required devlopment but held substantially greater profit potential.  Those efforts started to bear fruit earlier in the fiscal year (April).  Momentum accelerated in the January quarter as volume picked up and margins expanded.

Earnings jumped 167% to $.32 a share.  Sales climbed 98% to $59.9 million.  The advance was led by a 253% increase in coal production.  Wholesale and coal washing operations also improved.  Expansion efforts promise to keep output rising in future periods.  The April quarter will be affected by the Chinese New Year celebration.  So the immediate sequential comparison might be flat.  But further gains are likely in fiscal 2014.  We estimate income will finish around $.90 a share this year and $1.25 a share in fiscal 2014.

Acquisitions are possible.  The Chinese central government has implemented a consolidation program for the coal industry.  Small operators are required to merge with larger groups by the end of calendar 2013.  The actual transactions need to be consummated by 2015.  L&L Energy has identified several candidates.  Substantial leverage could be achieved.  A successful roll-up strategy could reinforce the share price.  A higher price, in turn, could yield even more accretive acquisitions.

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Computer Modelling Group ( Toronto - CMG ) -- Schlumberger Falls Behind

Computer Modelling Group (CMG.to $22.00) reported Q3 (Dec.) results that were somewhat below our expectation.  The company is the leading provider of simulation software used by energy companies to understand their underground reserves, and manage them for maximum profit.  Computer Modelling's specialty is heavy oil and hard to recover reservoirs.  Competition is provided by Schlumberger and Halliburton, the largest all around oilfield service providers.  Those companies dominated the software market during the "black oil" days, when new discoveries were just giant pools of petroleum that were relatively easy to exploit.  Computer Modelling started up in the 1990s and created advanced mathematics to work on more challenging fields.  Today, those are the only reserves left to find.

Earnings rose a modest 6% in the last quarter to $.17 a share.  Revenues also were up 6% to $16.8 million.  Excluding the company's deal with the Venezuelan national oil company, though, recurring revenue climbed 34%.  Computer Modelling trusts the government of Venezuela to pay its bills.  But its auditors don't.  So the official books don't recognize any accounts receivable.  Revenues equal cash collected.  The bad comparison isn't the result of delayed payments, at least in the December period.  What happened is that Venezuela fell behind last year during the run up to to the elections.  Then they made up for it in the year ago quarter.  So this year's comparison was muted.

Referrals from Halliburton continue to rise.  That company still has a terrific collection of customers with black oil reserves.  They continue to be served by Halliburton's in-house software.  When it comes to new drilling, though, Halliburton can't even give it away.  Computer Modelling's technology is superior.  The rate of return on the technology is far beyond whatever it might be worth to get Halliburton's product for free.  So Halliburton has started to license Computer Modelling's products, figuring it will keep its customers happy and make up the difference by selling all its other products and services.

Schlumberger still has not joined forces with the company.  It hasn't come out with a competitive product, either, from a technology standpoint.  And its top software engineer and product manager recently left the company, casting doubt on the likelihood a big breakthrough is coming soon. 

The offshore project could finish by the end of the year.  That effort continues to be funded 33%-33%-33% along with Shell and Petrobas.  Computer Modelling retains 100% of commercial sales potential to other companies.  The company's partners will get first use of the software.  The structure of the technology allows ample plug-in opportunities.  Shell and Petrobas are developing quite a few of those proprietary programs, which probably won't be made available to their competitors.  Over time, though, word gets around, and those competitors may write their own.

Computer Modelling remains a phenomenal company.  Gross margins are sufficient to pay for aggressive marketing, high levels of product development, and plentiful dividends.  The executives running the company are approaching retirement age.  So a buyout is possible.  But Computer Modelling has a clear cut runway to 2020, perhaps farther.  If it remains independent above average growth could persist as the new product kicks in, existing customers expand, Halliburton referrals keep rising, and Schlumberger throws in the towel and licenses the software, too. 

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Computer Modelling Group ( Toronto - CMG ) -- Momentum Continues

Computer Modelling Group (CMG.to $21.50) appears on track to report excellent on target Q3 (December) results.  The company is the leading provider of simulation software used to model energy reservoirs so that production is maximized.  Demand is rising because new deposits have become increasingly difficult to exploit.  A wide range of enhanced recovery technologies have reached the market in recent years, making it more cost effective to extract those reserves.  Complexity has grown, as well, requiring more computer horsepower to analyze the best route to take.  Competition is provided by Schlumberger and Halliburton.  Those companies offer less robust products that originally were built in the "black oil" days, when drilling required simpler techniques.  Schlumberger is continuing to offer its own product line, often without charge, to try to retain marketing control of its accounts.  Many customers are gravitating to Computer Modelling's superior technology, nonetheless.  Halliburton now licenses the company's key products for its consulting group.  That provides a direct revenue contribution.  End users often buy Computer Modelling licenses once Halliburton's consulting efforts finish, giving the company access to a larger customer base.

Existing customers are purchasing additional licenses, too.  Demand is vibrant in all geographic markets.  Volume is responding to the combination of steady selling prices for oil and declining production costs.  Enhanced recovery techniques traditionally were expensive and unreliable.  Computer Modelling's software has played a role in driving costs down, and production up.  Companies that deliver those enhanced recovery and fracking methods have boosted price performance dramatically, moreover.  Difficult to recover reserves like tar sands, shale, and heavy oil are becoming increasingly economical to produce.

The renewal rate remains in the 95%-98% range.  Occasionally a license is not renewed after a project ends.  But most customers retain the technology and just move the expertise to a new target.  Computer Modelling has been transitioning its customer base from perpetual to annual licenses for several years.  Some still prefer the perpetual format, though.  Those deals cause quarterly results to fluctuate, due to the higher dollar amounts involved.  The underlying trend in annuity revenue continues to advance at a 15%-25% rate.  Profitability exceeds 50% pretax.  A large portion of income is paid out as cash dividends.  Our estimates are unchanged.

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