Computer Modelling Group ( Toronto - CMG ) -- Q4 Results

Computer Modelling Group (Toronto - CMG $28.00) reported Q4 (March) results that were below our expectation.  The company prices its energy simulation software either as a perpetual license or on a year to basis.  More customers elected the annuity format which provided less upfront revenue.  Unit volume was on target.  The recurring fees will enhance future reporting periods.  Earnings were down 10% at $.28 a share (excluding non cash stock option expense).  Sales were flat at $14.4 million (Canadian).  For the entire fiscal year earnings rose 16% to $.99 a share.  Revenues improved 14% to $51.8 million.   Consulting was the fastest growing segment, although it only represented 16% of total sales.  Computer Modelling has upgraded its technology substantially over the past two years, adding functionality that many users need help with to implement.  Those engagements usually lead to license sales.  License sales also are benefiting as different divisions within large companies adopt the technology. 

Long term growth promises to remain vibrant.  Almost all new energy discoveries are difficult to develop, and candidates for Computer Modelling's technology.  Halliburton and Schlumberger continue to offer simulators for conventional fields but have been unable to catch up in the high end segment.  Worldwide energy demand continues to rise, fueled by emerging economies.  And even at current price levels oil and natural gas provide far superior price performance compared to alternative sources.  A second line will be introduced later this year, focused on above ground facilities.  Those simulators will enable customers to maximize productivity for their entire projects.  The company is partnering with Petrobas and Shell.  Computer Modelling will retain all rights to the technology even though it only paid a third of the development cost.  Petrobas and Shell will get first crack at putting it to use.  Substantial leverage is possible by selling the new line to existing customers and bundling it with existing products when making new sales.

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